After TSMC upgraded the annual growth rate of global semiconductor output, Gartner, an international research and advisory body, brought encouraging news that global semiconductor revenue would break through the $400 billion mark for the first time in 2017, a record of $300 billion in 2010 and a new record.
Due to the maturity of high-efficiency operations such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things and cloud computing, as well as the increasing demand for storage, the global semiconductor revenue will break through a new high again. Gu Neng predicts that the global semiconductor revenue will reach 401.4 billion US dollars in 2017, up 16.8% from 2016, which is the first time that the global semiconductor revenue will break through the 400 billion US dollars barrier. According to past historical records, the global semiconductor industry hit a record $300 billion in 2010, and surpassed $200 billion in 2000 earlier.
Gu Neng Statistics includes storage. Andrew Norwood, vice president of Gu Neng Research, points out that the shortage of storage drives up the overall semiconductor market. Storage manufacturers raise the prices of DRAM and NAND, and their revenues and profits grow accordingly. Gartner predicts a 52% increase in revenue in the storage market in 2017, which will shake the overall semiconductor market.
Without storage, TSMC also recently upgraded its global semiconductor output, which is expected to increase from 4% to 6% annually in 2017 and from 5% to 6% annually in the last quarter. Liu Deyin, co-CEO of TSMC, said that the annual growth rate of semiconductor output this year was mainly due to better than expected market demand in PC, communications and automotive sectors. Mobile phone inventory adjustment in the first half of the year gradually restored to the previous level in the third quarter. Therefore, the output value of wafer OEM this year was 6%.
Storage product promotion
Jon Erensen, director of research at Gartner, said: "Although DRAM and NANDFlash prices have both risen, making the overall semiconductor market more promising, it also puts pressure on the profits of smartphone, personal computer (PC) and server system manufacturers. The market will be turbulent in 2017 and 2018 due to the shortage of spare parts, the rise in raw material prices, and the fact that businesses may have to raise average selling prices (ASP). "
The price of DRAM for personal computers has doubled since mid-2016. The original $12.50 4GB module has risen to nearly $25, and the average price of NANDFlash has continued to rise from the second half of 2016 to the first quarter of this year. Gartner expects DRAM and NAND prices to peak in the second quarter of 2017, but the overall price decline is likely to continue until the end of this year, mainly due to increased capacity demand for major applications such as smartphones, and manufacturers will start to rush.
Jon Erensen pointed out: "In 2017, as the gross profit of storage companies increased, manufacturers began to lay out new capacity expansion plans. We expect that the Chinese mainland will take a series of actions to develop the storage industry, which will also cause the market to decline in 2019. "
Semiconductor market prospects are better in 2017, as unit production estimates for top smartphones, graphics cards, game consoles and automotive applications have increased. In addition, the extensive use of PCs, ultramobile, servers and solid-state hard drives such as DRAM and NANDFlash will also drive the increase of semiconductor revenue estimates.
According to Jon Erensen, "The related semiconductor business opportunities brought about by the Internet of Things (IoT) and wearable devices are gradually rising, but the prospects are still unclear. The main reason is that these markets are in the early stages of development and are too small to have a significant impact on the overall growth rate of semiconductor revenue in 2017.
